UFC 293 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Shane Young vs Gabriel Miranda Some Leans Following Market Correction (Saturday, September 9)

Updated:2024-05-03 18:21    Views:69

Shane Young vs. Gabriel Miranda OddsYoung Odds-116Miranda Odds-102Over/Under2.5 (+112 / -142)VenueQudos Bank Arena in Sydney, AustraliaTime7 p.m. ETTVESPN+Odds as of Saturday afternoon and via FanDuel

The UFC 293 early preliminary card includes a clash of Shane Young vs. Gabriel Miranda.

New Zealand's Young lost his UFC debut to Alexander Volkanovski. He then won two straight. But now he's on a three-fight skid as he meets Brazil's Miranda, who suffered a rough KO defeat to Benoit Saint-Denis in his recent UFC debut.

Will Miranda bounce back as a small underdog? Or can Young right the ship while on home soil?

Let's look at Young vs. Miranda at UFC 293.

Tale of the TapeYoungMirandaRecord13-716-6Avg. Fight Time11:495:16Height5'8"5'11"Weight149.75 pounds144.95 poundsReach72"71"StanceOrthodoxOrthodoxDate of birth7/31/19933/25/1990Sig Strikes Per Minute5.243.80SS Accuracy40T%SS Absorbed Per Minute5.517.97SS Defense527%Take Down Avg0.632.85TD Acc183%TD Def65%0%Submission Avg0.00.0

Young was the only fighter to miss weight on Friday and came in nearly four pounds over the featherweight limit.

He'll forfeit 30% of his purse to opponent Miranda, who may look like the bigger man (three inches taller) anyway.

A bad weight cut could further dissipate Young's already suspect chin, which has seen him wobble or drop in several fights, and limit what might be his best weapon and biggest advantage over Miranda: cardio.

UFC 293 Odds: Sean Zerillo's Betting Picks, Previews, Predictions for All 12 FightsRead now

Young's likeliest path to victory in this matchup would come down the stretch, but a lousy weight cut could eliminate that possibility.

Miranda is the superior grappler and a relatively easy play at plus money.

Still, his moneyline price has dropped drastically since Young's weight miss, moving from an average of +130 (43.5% implied) to +115 (46.5% implied) 鈥?a 3% adjustment since weigh-ins 鈥?at the time of this writing.

Young vs. Miranda Pick

I projected Miranda around +118 and would need +125 or better to bet him (currently +125 at BetMGM and +133 at BetRivers).

However, I wouldn't go beyond that price point.

Alternatively, you could consider betting the fight to reach a decision (projected +128, listed +150 at FanDuel) or Young by decision (projected +208, listed +230 at FanDuel) after the market correction.

The Pick: Gabriel Miranda (+145, 0.5u at Caesars)

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